The Idea in Brief
Most business failures, such as engineering disasters, product malfunctions, and PR crises, are preceded by near misses—close calls that, had it not been for chance, would have been worse.
Managers often misinterpret these warning signs because they are blinded by cognitive biases. They take the near misses as indications that systems are working well—or they don’t notice them at all.
Seven strategies can help managers recognize and learn from near misses. Managers should: (1) be on alert when time or cost pressures are high; (2) watch for deviations from the norm; (3) uncover the deviations’ root causes; (4) hold themselves accountable for near misses; (5) envision worst-case scenarios; (6) look for near misses masquerading as successes; and (7) reward individuals for exposing near misses.
Most people think of “near misses” as harrowing close calls that could have been a lot worse—when a firefighter escapes a burning building moments before it collapses, or when a tornado miraculously veers away from a town in its path. Events like these are rare narrow escapes that leave us shaken and looking for lessons.
