Cassandra | Lead and crime

Plumb crazy?

"The removal of lead from all petrol, then, should usher in a Golden Age. In America, since the ban of 1996, researchers estimate that IQ scores have risen by several points and 58m crimes have been avoided."

By J.A.

AS THE fascinating obituary in The World in 2013 points out, this is the year in which our cars will no longer—according to a rather hopeful deadline set by the United Nations—be powered anywhere in the world by leaded petrol (or gasoline, as Americans prefer to call it). All of which will be very good for world health. As the obituary says:

The removal of lead from all petrol, then, should usher in a Golden Age. In America, since the ban of 1996, researchers estimate that IQ scores have risen by several points and 58m crimes have been avoided. The spread of peace to some of the world’s more benighted countries may happen not because leaders parley or Western troops leave, but because the element of wickedness has been taken out of their cars. In so far as lead survives, it will no longer be in forms that can be widely ingested or inhaled.

It seems obvious enough that when a brain-affecting toxin is removed, IQ scores will improve. But what Cassandra finds more interesting is the idea that "58m crimes have been avoided". Is this true, and how can we possibly know?

On the other hand, perhaps my scepticism is unwarranted. The other day I came across an intriguing article in the left-of-centre Mother Jones magazine, arguing persuasively that the rise and fall in crime rates in America, not least for violent crime, coincide after a predictable time-lag with the rise and fall in the use of lead in petrol. In other words, removing lead from the environment is a better deterrent to crime than "broken windows" policing or the CompStat directing of police resources. The article is long, but well worth reading—and it has its critics, which is why it is worth reading the aftermath in Mother Jones.

There is just one other point to bear in mind: lead may be gone from petrol, but it has a buoyant market elsewhere, as a recent letter to The Economist from Andy Bush, managing director of the International Lead Association, takes the trouble to explain:

SIR – Your obituary for leaded petrol ahead of the 2013 UN deadline refers to lead being “tantalisingly close to death”, which is far from the truth. The end of lead as a gasoline additive is indeed in sight, however the modern story of lead is one of success and rebirth rather than of lingering decline. The unique properties of lead have seen it develop into one of the most essential and sustainable substances for any future thriving green economy.

Global demand for lead has more than doubled since the early 1990s to 10 million tonnes annually. Almost 90% of use is now in lead-acid batteries, a vital component in the one billion petrol and diesel vehicles worldwide. These batteries are also allowing significant vehicle carbon savings through “start-stop” technology and are at the forefront of developments in high performance hybrid electric cars. Lead arguably has the highest recycling rate of any major commodity at greater than 90% in developed countries.

Lead batteries can further play a significant role in helping to achieve energy policy objectives through the storage of renewable energy and the stabilisation of power grids. It is also worth noting that lead batteries provide emergency backup power to most of the world’s IT and telecoms infrastructure, not to mention backup power during natural disasters, such as Hurricane Sandy.

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